E-commerce could take a 40 per cent share of overall trade volumes in developed countries by 2025, according to a study by Deutsche Post DHL
Today e-commerce makes up eight per cent of the overall trading volume in Europe already, but the study found that this share could rise up to 40 per cent in developed countries and up to 30 per cent in today’s emerging markets.
The “Global E-Tailing 2025” study put forward four possible scenarios for the future to explore cross-border online commerce and its implications for the logistics industry.
In the first scenario, a strong global economy and a stable middle class will have established a true “Everywhere Commerce”. Consumers will receive their purchases much faster than today, with express shipments being delivered in less than 24 hours and measured in minutes.
In a different scenario a highly developed digital culture has evolved, in which almost all products will be sold online and consumers will receive support by avatars. To protect manufacturers from counterfeit, logistics companies will offer protected supply chains.
The study also includes crisis scenarios. Scenario four outlines how the worldwide consumption patterns develop after the global economy will have suffered another financial crisis and energy and raw material prices have risen considerably. Under these circumstances, people could adopt a do-it-yourself mentality instead and sharing models instead of the “all new” approach.
Jürgen Gerdes, CEO Post – eCommerce – Parcel at Deutsche Post DHL, said: “We don’t know for certain what the world will look like in 2025, but the study’s various scenarios show how rapid the global retail sector – online and offline – is changing and that logistics will be a focal point of these change processes.”
“As the most international company in the logistics industry, we’re destined to establish our successful e-commerce related B2C business in non-European markets. We see huge potential to become the world’s leading provider for e-commerce logistics in a few years.”
The research examined selected developed and emerging markets around the world. Trend scouts also studied purchasing and logistics trends in 12 international metropolises.
The study was conducted with participation of the trend research institutions Z_punkt and See More as well as numerous international experts from retail, logistics and academia.